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Why Is EUR/USD Stuck Near 1.1100? | Decoding the Dollar's Surge Post Trade Truce

The how to sell pi coin on okxEUR/USD pair continues to hover near the psychologically significant 1.1100 level during Tuesday's European session, reflecting cautious market sentiment following recent geopolitical developments. The currency pair's inability to recover meaningfully stems from renewed strength in the US Dollar, which gained traction after Washington and Beijing reached a provisional agreement to de-escalate their ongoing trade dispute.

Market participants are closely monitoring the Dollar Index (DXY), currently maintaining its position around 101.60 after Monday's notable advance. This stability follows the landmark decision by both economic superpowers to implement substantial tariff reductions across multiple sectors, marking the most significant trade concession since the conflict began.

The temporary trade ceasefire, negotiated during intensive talks in Geneva, resulted in immediate market reactions. US equity markets rallied while Treasury yields firmed, signaling improved risk appetite among investors. The agreement specifically addresses reciprocal tariff reductions, with Washington lowering duties by 115 basis points for an initial 90-day period. This development has alleviated some concerns about potential stagflationary effects on the US economy that had previously weighed on Dollar sentiment.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee provided nuanced commentary on the situation, noting that while the economic impact appears less severe than initially projected, structural challenges persist. "Current tariff levels remain significantly elevated compared to historical norms," Goolsbee remarked during a press briefing. "This continued trade friction may still exert modest inflationary pressures while potentially constraining economic expansion."

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD Movement

  • Diverging central bank expectations continue to pressure the pair, with ECB policymakers signaling potential June rate cuts while Fed officials maintain a more cautious stance
  • Ongoing uncertainty regarding EU-US trade negotiations creates additional headwinds for the Euro, as Brussels prepares contingency measures
  • Upcoming US inflation data could provide fresh directional cues, with consensus forecasts anticipating stable price growth metrics

From a technical perspective, the currency pair faces critical resistance near the 1.1200 level, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. Recent price action suggests the formation of a new lower high pattern, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining below the neutral 40 threshold. Traders are watching the 1.0733 March low as potential support should bearish momentum accelerate.

The broader market context reveals several competing forces at play. While the temporary US-China agreement has removed immediate downside risks for global growth, structural issues in Eurozone-US trade relations and monetary policy divergence continue to create challenges for EUR bulls. Market participants await Thursday's ECB meeting minutes and Friday's US retail sales data for additional clarity on the fundamental backdrop.